Live watch

Portugal Earthquake Precursors Watch

Last update: 7/7/2026, 5:48:20 PM

Global Lisbon alert

Multi-Precursor Watch

score 8

Maximum theoretical level: Multi-Precursor Watch, score ≥ 8.

Core Lisbon-risk zones

GORRINGE_BANK

Watch

GULF_CADIZ_WEST

Watch

HORSESHOE_MARQUES_POMBAL

Elevated Watch

LOWER_TAGUS

Watch

SAO_VICENTE_CORE

Multi-Precursor Watch

SW_IBERIA_WIDE

Elevated Watch

Current interpretation

Driven by seismicity

Multi-Precursor Watch is active. 3 priority zones show elevated scores, with up to 4 events in 24h and 44 in 7d. No elevated zone is currently multi-signal by score contribution. TEC z-score is available for GloTEC-covered zones; 3 fine zones use buffered GloTEC coverage around the source zone. Geomagnetic context is quiet: Kp is 1.0 and Dst is -14. Quality note: 3 zones currently have partial TEC coverage from the coarse GloTEC grid. Seismic events are deduplicated across IPMA / EMSC / USGS before scoring.

How to read this dashboard

This is an exploratory Lisbon Risk Watch system. The alert level combines recent seismicity, ionospheric TEC/VTEC, space-weather context and source-zone priority. Global Lisbon Alert is the highest alert among core Lisbon-risk zones.

0-2 Normal | 3-4 Watch | 5-7 Elevated | 8+ Multi-Precursor

EQ 24h / EQ 7d count assigned seismic events. Max M 30d is the strongest assigned event in the scoring window.

VTEC z compares current VTEC with the 90-day same-hour baseline. Negative is below normal, positive is above normal; -1.5 to +1.5 is treated as normal.

TEC tail marks percentile extremes: ≤5 low extreme, ≥95 high extreme. Buffered coverage uses nearby GloTEC cells around a fine zone; proxy coverage is regional context from a parent zone.

GORRINGE_BANK

Gorringe Bank

4

Alert

Watch

Driver

Seismicity

EQ 24h

0

EQ 24h z

-0.4

EQ 7d

2

EQ 7d z

2.0

M>=2 7d

1

Energy z

-0.4

Seismic tail

normal

Max M 30d

3.0

VTEC

23.3

VTEC z

baseline 10/30

TEC tail

n/a

TEC coverage

native · 1 pts

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

Geomag

quiet

Score contribution

Seismicity +2 | TEC +0 | Space +1 | Priority +1

TEC tail only — no TEC score.

Reasons

  • 7d M>=1 event rate is elevated: z=2.00, percentile=82
  • Geomagnetic quiet: Kp low and Dst near neutral
  • Priority source zone for Portugal

GULF_CADIZ_WEST

Western Gulf of Cadiz

4

Alert

Watch

Driver

Seismicity

EQ 24h

2

EQ 24h z

1.0

EQ 7d

24

EQ 7d z

2.6

M>=2 7d

3

Energy z

1.2

Seismic tail

normal

Max M 30d

3.2

VTEC

25.1

VTEC z

baseline 10/30

TEC tail

n/a

TEC coverage

native · 1 pts

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

Geomag

quiet

Score contribution

Seismicity +2 | TEC +0 | Space +1 | Priority +1

TEC tail only — no TEC score.

Reasons

  • 7d M>=1 event rate is elevated: z=2.60, percentile=91
  • Geomagnetic quiet: Kp low and Dst near neutral
  • Priority source zone for Portugal

HORSESHOE_MARQUES_POMBAL

Horseshoe / Marques de Pombal

6

Alert

Elevated Watch

Driver

Seismicity

EQ 24h

2

EQ 24h z

2.0

EQ 7d

20

EQ 7d z

2.4

M>=2 7d

2

Energy z

1.1

Seismic tail

normal

Max M 30d

4.1

VTEC

24.2

VTEC z

baseline 10/30

TEC tail

n/a

TEC coverage

buffered 100 km · 2 pts

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

Geomag

quiet

Score contribution

Seismicity +4 | TEC +0 | Space +1 | Priority +1

TEC tail only — no TEC score.

Reasons

  • 24h M>=1 event rate is elevated: z=2.00, percentile=89
  • 7d M>=1 event rate is elevated: z=2.40, percentile=82
  • Geomagnetic quiet: Kp low and Dst near neutral
  • Priority source zone for Portugal

LOWER_TAGUS

Vale Inferior do Tejo / Lisboa

4

Alert

Watch

Driver

Seismicity

EQ 24h

0

EQ 24h z

-0.3

EQ 7d

7

EQ 7d z

6.0

M>=2 7d

0

Energy z

-0.5

Seismic tail

normal

Max M 30d

1.9

VTEC

23.6

VTEC z

baseline 10/30

TEC tail

n/a

TEC coverage

buffered 100 km · 1 pts

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

Geomag

quiet

Score contribution

Seismicity +3 | TEC +0 | Space +1 | Priority +0

TEC tail only — no TEC score.

Reasons

  • 7d M>=1 event rate is anomalous: z=6.00, percentile=100
  • Geomagnetic quiet: Kp low and Dst near neutral

SAO_VICENTE_CORE

Sao Vicente / San Vicente Canyon

8

Alert

Multi-Precursor Watch

Driver

Seismicity

EQ 24h

3

EQ 24h z

3.0

EQ 7d

26

EQ 7d z

5.3

M>=2 7d

4

Energy z

1.2

Seismic tail

high

Max M 30d

4.1

VTEC

25.1

VTEC z

baseline 10/30

TEC tail

n/a

TEC coverage

buffered 100 km · 1 pts

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

Geomag

quiet

Score contribution

Seismicity +6 | TEC +0 | Space +1 | Priority +1

TEC tail only — no TEC score.

Reasons

  • 24h M>=1 event rate is anomalous: z=3.00, percentile=98
  • 7d M>=1 event rate is anomalous: z=5.33, percentile=100
  • Geomagnetic quiet: Kp low and Dst near neutral
  • Priority source zone for Portugal

SW_IBERIA_WIDE

SW Iberia wide source province

6

Alert

Elevated Watch

Driver

Seismicity

EQ 24h

4

EQ 24h z

1.5

EQ 7d

44

EQ 7d z

3.1

M>=2 7d

6

Energy z

1.0

Seismic tail

normal

Max M 30d

4.1

VTEC

23.1

VTEC z

baseline 10/30

TEC tail

n/a

TEC coverage

native · 4 pts

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

Geomag

quiet

Score contribution

Seismicity +4 | TEC +0 | Space +1 | Priority +1

TEC tail only — no TEC score.

Reasons

  • 24h M>=1 event rate is mildly elevated: z=1.50, percentile=79
  • 7d M>=1 event rate is anomalous: z=3.11, percentile=73
  • Geomagnetic quiet: Kp low and Dst near neutral
  • Priority source zone for Portugal

Portugal-wide context

Context-only zones

These zones do not contribute to the Global Lisbon Alert or SMS by default.

AZORES

Acores

6

Alert

Elevated Watch

Driver

Seismicity

EQ 24h

2

EQ 24h z

2.0

EQ 7d

16

EQ 7d z

8.0

M>=2 7d

16

Energy z

1.2

Seismic tail

normal

Max M 30d

3.9

VTEC

21.7

VTEC z

baseline 10/30

TEC tail

n/a

TEC coverage

native · 2 pts

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

Geomag

quiet

Score contribution

Seismicity +5 | TEC +0 | Space +1 | Priority +0

TEC tail only — no TEC score.

Reasons

  • 24h M>=1 event rate is elevated: z=2.00, percentile=93
  • 7d M>=1 event rate is anomalous: z=8.00, percentile=91
  • Geomagnetic quiet: Kp low and Dst near neutral

History

Score timeline

Last 72h

Loading history...

Space weather

NOAA SWPC context

7/7/2026, 5:45:24 PM

Kp

1.0

Dst

-14

F10.7

125.0

Source status

GORRINGE_BANK / tecok
GORRINGE_BANK / seismicok
GORRINGE_BANK / spaceWeatherok
GULF_CADIZ_WEST / tecok
GULF_CADIZ_WEST / seismicok
GULF_CADIZ_WEST / spaceWeatherok
HORSESHOE_MARQUES_POMBAL / tecpartial
HORSESHOE_MARQUES_POMBAL / seismicok
HORSESHOE_MARQUES_POMBAL / spaceWeatherok
LOWER_TAGUS / tecpartial
LOWER_TAGUS / seismicok
LOWER_TAGUS / spaceWeatherok
SAO_VICENTE_CORE / tecpartial
SAO_VICENTE_CORE / seismicok
SAO_VICENTE_CORE / spaceWeatherok
SW_IBERIA_WIDE / tecok
SW_IBERIA_WIDE / seismicok
SW_IBERIA_WIDE / spaceWeatherok

TEC / VTEC

NOAA GloTEC aggregates

ZoneMeanMedianZ-scorePercentileTEC tailDeltaBaselineCoverageGrid points
Gorringe Bank23.323.3need 30; now 10n/an/a0.6GLOTEC90d, same-hour yesSamples: 10 / 30 minnativeNative cells: 11
Western Gulf of Cadiz25.125.1need 30; now 10n/an/a0.4GLOTEC90d, same-hour yesSamples: 10 / 30 minnativeNative cells: 11
Horseshoe / Marques de Pombal24.225.1need 30; now 10n/an/a0.5GLOTEC90d, same-hour yesSamples: 10 / 30 minbuffered 100 kmNative cells: 02
Vale Inferior do Tejo / Lisboa23.623.6need 30; now 10n/an/a0.5GLOTEC90d, same-hour yesSamples: 10 / 30 minbuffered 100 kmNative cells: 01
Sao Vicente / San Vicente Canyon25.125.1need 30; now 10n/an/a0.4GLOTEC90d, same-hour yesSamples: 10 / 30 minbuffered 100 kmNative cells: 01
SW Iberia wide source province23.123.6need 30; now 10n/an/a0.5GLOTEC90d, same-hour yesSamples: 10 / 30 minnativeNative cells: 44

Recent seismicity map

Seismic activity map

Showing 0 events / max M n/a

Current window

0

Deduplicated

0 kept

Inside watched zones

0

Unassigned

0

Sources

n/a

Last seismic fetch: n/a

Loading map...
TimeZoneMagDepthSourcePlace
Loading seismic events...

Operational log summary

Latest run and alert

View full logs

Last monitor run

ok — 5:45:22 PM

8215 ms · GloTEC ok · seismic kept 364

Last alert

Horseshoe / Marques de Pombal — Elevated Watch

score 6

SMS status

no SMS sent

7/7/2026, 5:45:28 PM

Older alerts may reflect the scoring model active at the time.